Signals on the shape of the energy transition (part 2)

This post includes three sections:

1. California's dramatic batter transition.

2. Impact of the next POTUS

3. Potential of permitting reform

This post is part of a series. Part 1 lives here.

California has seen dramatic uptick in its grid scale battery adoption.

Skeptics might point out that the total percentage of grid reliability is still trivial. Yet these signals of accelerated action suggest the energy transition is proceeding along an S-curve in key sectors like solar and adjacent sectors like grid scale batteries to deal with solar's intermittency issue.

Adam Tooze's Chartbook has a very thorough post out estimating the impact of the 2024 presidential contest on carbon emissions. A top line chart from the piece:

https://adamtooze.substack.com

Chartbook 303: The climate stakes in the 2024 US election. Is recarbonization in America's future? How much difference might Trump-Vance make?

From the point of view of the climate crisis, how much is at stake in America's election in November?

Notably the post focuses its examination on rollbacks to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The piece does not prognosticate on the (more speculative) potential for other impactful policy changes like permitting reform.

Senators Manchin and Barrasso introduced a new bipartisan energy permitting reform bill. The difficulty in permitting and thus building new transmission lines has been a long standing pain point in new power generation. A nice summary of the bill from the Niskansen Center.

The Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024 aims to streamline and expedite the energy project approval process. By shortening judicial review timelines and accelerating leasing and permitting decisions, the bill seeks to facilitate the development of both onshore and offshore energy resources. The Act mandates regular offshore wind and oil lease sales, modernizes geothermal and hardrock mining processes, and sets increased production targets for renewable energy. It introduces reforms for electric transmission planning to safeguard electric reliability and enhance grid resilience.

These suggestions are broadly in line with the energy call to action I helped author in a previous gig. See that whitepaper below.

https://cafwd.org

Building A Sustainable Energy Future: A Call to Action

Building A Sustainable Energy Future: A Call to Action provides a framework for California to move forward with an urgency befitting the reality before us, and the awareness that we must question the siloed frameworks of the past if we are to bring all Californians forward with us into a healthier, more prosperous future.

This post is part of a series. Part 1 lives here.